FAS/Canada projects modest growth for milk and cheese production in 2023, as consumption remains stable, and the market is partially supplied by rising import volumes following implementation of Canada’s various trade agreements. Butter production is forecast to grow in 2023, as stocks remain low, depleted by sustained strong consumption. FAS/Canada forecasts skim milk powder exports stable into 2023, within the export limits set by USMCA provisions, as the industry reorients toward producing milk protein isolates. Imports of cheese and butter continue to rise, in part, due to additional duty-free market access under recently concluded trade agreements, including the USMCA.
New Zealand milk production is forecasted to fall slightly in 2023. Although milk prices are at extremely high levels and expected to remain elevated, a number of issues are limiting the production response. This includes a slowly declining national herd, and also that on-farm inflation is expected to remain high as a result of the weak NZ dollar impacting imported input prices, as well as strong global fuel prices. In addition, a threepeat of the La Niña weather pattern is already forecasted, and similar patterns during the last two seasons resulted in prolonged dry conditions in regions that represent over 60 percent of the national dairy farms.
Domestic milk production is forecast to decrease to 2 million tons in 2023. 2022 milk production is projected to drop to 2.01 million tons after reaching 2.34 million tons in 2021. Milk production is expected to show a decreasing trend due to the decreasing number of dairy farms and falling demand for milk. Cheese consumption, in contrast, is gradually increasing. However, imports in 2022 may experience an unusual drop due to the weakening Won exchange rate, particularly against the U.S. dollar.