The following gain reports were released on September 7, 2022

Australia: Livestock and Products Annual 

Australian beef supply is forecast to make a substantial step towards recovery in 2023 after falling to the lowest level in decades in 2021 and generating only a marginal improvement in 2022. The Australian cattle industry is expected to continue its strong herd rebuild in 2023 but with female slaughter rates rising. Most cattle producers have for the third successive season experienced great pasture conditions and the forecast in the coming months is for well above-average rainfall. With the support of increased female slaughter it is expected that overall cattle slaughter, beef production, and beef exports will all also rise in 2023. 

China: Livestock and Products Annual 

In 2023, imports of breeding swine and pork are expected to decline to 5,000 head and 1.85 million metric tons (MMT), respectively, due to lower domestic hog and pork prices. Consumer price sensitivity and competition among producers are expected to constrain pork and hog price increases, squeezing margins. Strong carryover stocks of beef cattle from 2022 into 2023 will support an increase in cattle and beef production to 52.575 million head and 7.4 MMT, respectively. Imports of cattle and beef are forecast to decline to 300 thousand head and 2.5 MMT, respectively, in 2023 on a less optimistic economic outlook, COVID-19 restrictions and uncertainty in the HRI sector, and tight global supplies. 

India: Livestock and Products Annual 

India’s national cattle herd inventory in marketing year (MY) 2023 (January-December) is forecast marginally higher at 307.4 million head. India’s MY 2023 production of carabeef (meat derived from the Asian domestic water buffalo) and beef is forecast at 4.42 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of two percent from the current year’s estimate on continued restrictive policies on slaughter of bovine animals. Carabeef and beef exports for MY 2023 is forecast at 1.48 MMT, largely unchanged from previous year as demand from South Asian markets continues to be under pressure. Note: carabeef and beef production and trade are reported in carcass weight equivalent (CWE). 

Turkey: Poultry and Products Annual 

In 2023, chicken meat production in Turkey is estimated to increase 9 percent to 2.68 million metric tons (MMT) due to continuing export demands and slightly higher domestic consumption. In 2023, domestic chicken meat consumption is forecast at 1.7 MMT which is 5 percent higher than 2022 but under sector hopes, mostly due to expected continued high poultry meat prices at retail outlets that are unlikely to change in the lead-up to the 2023 presidential election. In 2023, Turkish chicken meat exports are estimated to increase by 15 percent to 989,000 MT despite issues with the export markets of Iran, China, and Libya.