Post projects 2023 Argentine chicken meat production at 2.38 million metric tons, up very slightly from 2022 levels, while 2023 exports are projected at 190,000 tons, up 4 percent from 2022. Argentine exporters have gained new export opportunities as a result of trade disruptions stemming from the conflict in Ukraine, and these gains are expected to be maintained in the short term. As economic difficulties have affected Argentine consumers, the lower relative price of chicken to beef means that per capita consumption of chicken is approaching parity with beef, the traditional protein preferred by Argentines. While total consumption is continued to rise in line with population growth, per capita consumption is expected to plateau.
FAS/Canada projects moderate growth in chicken meat production in 2023, following a challenging year in 2022 due to tight supplies of hatching eggs and day-old chicks, and increased avian influenza occurrence. Calendar year 2023 import tariff rate quota volumes will exceed 116,000 metric tons (MT), of which 53,000 MT will be available exclusively to U.S. suppliers under USMCA implementation. FAS/Canada expects the United States to maintain a greater than 80 percent share of total Canadian chicken meat imports in 2023.
This report highlights notable household consumption for meat products among Japanese consumers and the strong preference for home-meals during the global pandemic. Recent data released from The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced the breakdown of meat consumption (by setting and use) in 2020. While the percentage of household consumption increased for all livestock species such as beef, pork, and chicken, the percentage of meat consumption in restaurants and other food service establishments decreased across the board. This report confirms how the early COVID-19 environment had an impact on the hotel, restaurant and institutional sector with consumers shifting to increased retail purchases of meat products for household consumption.
Post forecasts Mexico’s calf crop at 8.45 million head for 2023. Post forecasts cattle exports for 2023 at 1.2 million head, a slight increase from the 2022 estimate. Post forecasts beef production for 2023 at 2.22 million metric tons (MMT) carcass weight equivalent (CWE), almost a two percent increase from 2022. Mexico continues to set record beef exports, both in volume and value, and domestic demand is recovering gradually, requiring greater production.
Strong domestic demand and technological improvements are projected to support continued growth in domestic poultry production, with calendar year (CY) 2023 chicken meat production forecast higher at 4 million metric tons (MMT). Consumption is forecast at 4.94 MMT in CY 2023, up from the previous year due to consumers favoring the least expensive animal protein in the face of rising inflation and weakened purchasing power. Imports are forecast up slightly to 950,000 MT to meet domestic demand.
New Zealand is expected to have already reached “peak” cattle numbers, and FAS/Wellington anticipates a very gradual decline in both dairy and beef cow numbers in the near future. One of the major influences on this is New Zealand governmental policy, and in particular regulations regarding livestock exclusion around certain water sources, as well as proposed pricing of agricultural emissions. In 2023, FAS/Wellington is forecasting a less than 1 percent decrease to the national slaughter numbers, and beef production is forecast to ease a similar amount. In 2022, slaughter pace has been slowed by Covid-19 outbreaks, but processing companies are running their plants for longer into the winter to clear the backlog.